Blackjack – Four+ Decks On A Fixed Bank Part2
If you use a true edge adjustment, remember when adjusting your running count that the new calculation is based on unseen cards. If you enter a 6-deck game in progress after counting only one round, you must keep aware of the fact that you have seen and counted very few cards. There may be half a deck or more already in the discard pile, but do not make your true edge adjustments by estimating that you have seen all the discards unless you have actually seen them.
The rules are very important to card counters in shoe games. Surrender is worth about a quarter of a percent to a counter who is using a large spread, and double after splits is worth just a bit less. With both of these rules in place, your count strategy will be worth almost half a percent more, and that's a huge difference.
A card counter recently asked me if he could beat shoe games without table-hopping if he used a 1 to 12 spread. This may sound like a simple question, but the answer is quite complicated. How many decks? What's the penetration? What are the rules? Let's look at the player advantages (in percentage) from John Auston's "World's Greatest Blackjack Simulation" report for the Red Seven Count, using a 1 to 12 spread in both 6 and 8-deck games, with three different (but common) levels of penetration, and three different rule sets: dealer hits soft 17 (H17); dealer stands on soft 17 (S-17); and dealer stands on soft 17 plus late surrender (S-17-LS).
H17 S-17 S-17-LS
6 Decks, 67% Penetration 0.39 0.71 0.99
6 Decks, 75% Penetration 0.79 1.16 1.53
6 Decks, 83% Penetration 1.31 1.68 2.07
8 Decks, 69% Penetration -0.04 0.27 0.50
8 Decks, 75% Penetration 0.18 0.49 0.76
8 Decks, 81% Penetration 0.44 0.77 1.10
So, despite the fact that in all cases the player is using the same 1 to 12 betting spread in all of these games, with the same counting system, his expectation ranges from -0.04% (8 decks, with 5 1/2 decks dealt) to 2.07% (6 decks, with 5 decks dealt)! Notice how important all three variables— number of decks, penetration, and rules—are to the expectation. This is why many pros use computer simulation software themselves to test games and betting approaches. If you don't have a computer to run your own simulations, there are now books available (such as Auston's) that contain nothing but hundreds of charts of simulation data, comparing different games and table conditions. (In Chapter Fourteen, I will display some of the data from reports I have written.) If you intend to put any serious amount of money into this game, you have to invest a bit in your education.
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